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“it was plain that his belief about what he would invariably have said was not reliable” I am cannot identify what made this so plain.
para 14 of the judgment is concerning, because it seems to me that even Drs don’t understand fully risk and probability, leaving alone having to explain these to patients. I get this impression from reading critiques of research papers on topics that I am particularly interested in. I think research suggests that in general, when considering risk, people have a tendency to identify with the small proportion who might suffer negative outcomes rather than with the likelihood of a positive outcome
Elsewhere it says that the surgeon expected a good outcome: how can a patient balance abstract risk against the confidence of a particular surgeon who is sitting right there in front of her?
It is worth remembering that most surgeons clearly do manage the explanation very well.